Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 8.334528 9.579628 10.922382 12.475028 14.217720 16.110094 18.317208
2026-01-04 6.528256 8.214569 10.176363 12.614665 15.550312 18.956499 23.192382
2026-01-11 5.510624 7.356978 9.613000 12.548916 16.242433 20.706621 26.478866
2026-01-18 4.698028 6.621515 9.078955 12.411712 16.771014 22.231967 29.535926
2026-01-25 4.134316 6.109798 8.733273 12.419535 17.403468 23.837818 32.689874
2026-02-01 3.707563 5.723135 8.496194 12.519584 18.123128 25.553696 36.033862
2026-02-08 3.297093 5.305828 8.163853 12.437556 18.556810 26.874904 38.878448
2026-02-15 2.940712 4.924611 7.838924 12.322641 18.911120 28.075730 41.583317
2026-02-22 2.684667 4.665318 7.662020 12.394410 19.514210 29.626274 44.816131
2026-03-01 2.526149 4.540505 7.670909 12.732037 20.508757 31.760279 48.948281
2026-03-08 2.266356 4.223401 7.352733 12.539519 20.687984 32.707705 51.392964
2026-03-15 1.966715 3.807522 6.840487 11.999576 20.292738 32.771987 52.521973
2026-03-22 1.864179 3.726079 6.871257 12.337135 21.290743 34.984859 56.975338
2026-03-29 1.747816 3.608308 6.831111 12.553474 22.105011 36.951200 61.136799
2026-04-05 1.592132 3.401065 6.618418 12.460629 22.404243 38.119481 64.102008
2026-04-12 1.447555 3.199166 6.397162 12.333802 22.632806 39.175883 66.921865
2026-04-19 1.336775 3.051011 6.258891 12.338227 23.073863 40.579463 70.330727
2026-04-26 1.249381 2.940353 6.179526 12.438890 23.678118 42.263791 74.241578
2026-05-03 1.146794 2.787237 6.007300 12.356910 23.956159 43.416059 77.322901
2026-05-10 1.050131 2.636001 5.825678 12.242794 24.166071 44.455101 80.245433
2026-05-17 0.982815 2.541343 5.746678 12.314104 24.705741 46.063011 84.157864
2026-05-24 0.948196 2.516347 5.804735 12.649835 25.737988 48.545109 89.614794
2026-05-31 0.864163 2.368532 5.599848 12.458401 25.787163 49.327171 92.209693